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Clouded thinking

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A form of innumeracy, in which a person knows about the risks but not how to draw conclusions or inferences from them. For instance, physicians often know the error rates of mammography and the base rate of breast cancer, but not how to infer from this information the chances that a woman with a positive test actually has breast cancer. Mind tools for overcoming clouded thinking, such as natural frequencies, are representations that facilitate drawing conclusions.


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