Compression of morbidity

The compression of morbidity in public health is a hypothesis put forth by James Fries, professor of medicine at Stanford University School of Medicine. The hypothesis was confirmed by a 1998 study of 1700 University of Pennsylvania alumni over a period of 20 years.

Fries' hypothesis is that the burden of lifetime illness may be compressed into a shorter period before the time of death, if the age of onset of the first chronic infirmity can be postponed. This hypothesis contrasts to the view that as the age of countries' populations tends to increase over time, they will become increasingly infirm and consume an ever-larger proportion of the national budget in healthcare costs.

In order to confirm this hypothesis, the evidence must show that it is possible to delay the onset of infirmity, and that corresponding increases in longevity will be modest.

Fries concludes that if the hypothesis is confirmed, healthcare costs and patient health overall will be improved.